Tyche Institute
Open research and reference tools for verifiable AI evidence.
Tyche Institute is a registered Estonian non-profit research association (MTÜ, registry code 80673227) studying how AI agents, datasets, and human oversight workflows can leave signed, timestamped, offline-verifiable evidence — without pretending that cryptography proves truth or replaces judgment. Named after Τύχη, the Greek goddess of fortune, it treats randomness, uncertainty, and institutional trust as engineering and human questions.
Its work now extends into the IETF remote-attestation ecosystem, proposing how an AI agent's action evidence can compose with a hardware root of trust.
What we do
Tyche develops public specifications, reference verifiers, and case studies for AI evidence packages: structured artifacts that can be checked after the fact by humans, auditors, researchers, and independent tools.
Adjacent work covers open data and open-government records, public-key infrastructure read as governance, human oversight and agent delegation, educational AI, and long-term validation under emerging European regulation. The working papers are the canonical statement of scope.
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Open by design.
Public specifications and reference code where openness is useful; working papers and case studies where research is the right form.
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Verifiable by structure.
Evidence over belief: provenance, integrity, timestamps, policy context, and human review events that can be checked after the fact.
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Independent by intent.
Research-first posture, clean boundaries, and no claim to provide legal advice, compliance certification, or trust services.
Flagship
EATF — Agent Trust Framework
EATF is a research line for verifiable AI evidence packages: signed, timestamped, offline-verifiable artifacts that record provenance, integrity, policy context, model/tool metadata, and human review events.
Current case studies focus on educational AI, civic data, model-card evidence, and research artifact provenance.
Boundaries
Evidence, not overclaiming
Tyche Institute does not claim that cryptographic evidence proves truth, provide legal advice, certify EU AI Act compliance, operate as an eIDAS trust service provider, issue production certificates or timestamps, or sell compliance audits. Its work is research-oriented unless a specific engagement states otherwise.
From the lab
Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Study Guide
A trilingual, interactive guide to Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, adaptive task selection, explainability, and classroom heatmaps — a safer flagship case for attestable educational AI where teachers remain in control and recommendations can leave replayable evidence.
From the lab
H2O Atlas
A probabilistic risk estimator for Estonian water-quality compliance, built on Terviseamet open data. It originated as a TalTech Masinõpe (spring 2026) coursework project and continues as a Tyche-side testbed for EATF — a transparency tool, not a health advisory.